Catching the new trend
More and more NFL offenses are leaning toward the pass. For the first time since 2005, five teams averaged 37 or more pass attempts per game in 2009. Three of those five teams (Colts, Cardinals, Patriots) made the playoffs while one more (Texans) almost did.
Out of the 12 playoff teams, just four (Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Jets) ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. These days, more teams throw the ball to win. But does that mean receivers are blowing up at the same rate? Well, not so fast.
The number of elite receivers has stayed relatively constant over the last nine seasons. Let's define "elite receiver" as someone that had 1200+ yards and/or had 100+ catches.
NUMBER OF RECEIVERS WITH 1200+ YARDS SINCE 2001
2009: 9
2008: 8
2007: 9
2006: 7
2005: 9
2004: 11
2003: 7
2002: 13
2001: 9
NUMBER OF RECEIVERS WITH 100+ CATCHES SINCE 2001
2009: 6
2008: 3
2007: 6
2006: 1
2005: 4
2004: 1
2003: 4
2002: 5
2001: 6
As you can see, that lean toward the pass doesn't mean we can afford to wait for our "elite receiver" on draft day. History tells us that there won't be more than 6-10 of them.
While you digest that, here's some more random facts related to pass-catching. All season I tracked the Target Report highlights over on Pancake Blocks. A target, of course, is a ball thrown to a receiver (not how many he catches). Some things stood out from the final numbers:
* Out of all receivers with 100 or more targets, Calvin Johnson ended up with the worst catch rate at 49 percent. I'm staying away from him unless the Lions land a solid No. 2 WR this offseason.
* Andre Johnson led the league in targets with 171, but Wes Welker was the leader in terms of targets per game. I'm intrigued by Julian Edelman next season because of that.
* Ray Rice (101) was the only running back with 100 or more targets. Tim Hightower (80) was second, something that is very unlikely to happen next season thanks to the emergence of Chris Wells.
* The only name in the top 10 that surprises me is Santonio Holmes (8th). His meager five touchdowns seems a little fluky and he could be a nice value pick next season.
* Out of all receivers with 100 or more targets, Wes Welker led the league in catch percentage at an absurd 76 percent. Tom Brady is going to miss him dearly.
* Davone Bess (113) had more targets than Donald Driver, Mike Sims-Walker, Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston.
V-JAX AND THE LONG ARM OF THE LAW
News came down on Tuesday that Vincent Jackson was charged with two misdemeanors stemming from his traffic stop just before the Divisional Round loss to the Jets. That in itself isn't a big deal, but when taken in context with V-Jax's 2006 conviction on a misdemeanor drunken driving charge and a 2009 DUI case pending, we have problems.
Jackson is likely staring at a one-game suspension, and there's a very real possibility he could be sat down for even more. It's another reason to like Malcom Floyd, who showed he is more than just a deep threat last season. All Floyd needs is more targets.
DEEP RECEIVERS
It's too early in the offseason to project exact depth charts, but here are four receivers below the radar that have a shot to be in the mix next season. Not listed are guys people already know about like Julian Edelman, Devin Thomas, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Devin Aromashodu, Early Doucet etc.:
Jacoby Jones - He's expected to at least push Kevin Walter for the No. 2 job. With Matt Schaub under center in that offense, it's impossible not to like the big-play potential of Jones.
Kevin Ogletree - The problems of Roy Williams are well documented. The Cowboys coaches say Ogletree isn't ready yet, but they also didn't think Miles Austin was ready at the beginning of last season. With a big offseason, Ogletree could be pushing Williams by the middle of next season.
Dwayne Jarrett - There's one big problem with this guy: He's simply not that good. That said, the Panthers are desperate at the No. 2 receiver spot as they can't put Muhsin Muhammad there again in good conscious.
Andre Caldwell - He's probably a better option for the No. 2 job than Laveranues Coles, but that's not saying much. Even if Caldwell does win this job, the upside isn't very high.
CATCHING UP ON SOME NEWS
Kurt Warner is expected to announce his retirement on Friday. Huge ramifications for all Cardinals receivers with Matt Leinart under center. … Jonathan Stewart is getting more surgery on his Achilles. I'd be scared if this guy has ever seemed limited in a game by the injury. … It's a foregone conclusion that LaDainian Tomlinson will be cut. Sad but necessary. … David Garrard is a Pro Bowler? This game is an even bigger joke this year than it was in the past. … Injuries should not be a factor in the Super Bowl. Only Jeremy Shockey (knee) and Jerraud Powers (foot) are in any real danger of missing the game. And maybe I'm crazy, but I might take David Thomas over a healthy Shockey anyway.
More and more NFL offenses are leaning toward the pass. For the first time since 2005, five teams averaged 37 or more pass attempts per game in 2009. Three of those five teams (Colts, Cardinals, Patriots) made the playoffs while one more (Texans) almost did.
Out of the 12 playoff teams, just four (Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Jets) ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. These days, more teams throw the ball to win. But does that mean receivers are blowing up at the same rate? Well, not so fast.
The number of elite receivers has stayed relatively constant over the last nine seasons. Let's define "elite receiver" as someone that had 1200+ yards and/or had 100+ catches.
NUMBER OF RECEIVERS WITH 1200+ YARDS SINCE 2001
2009: 9
2008: 8
2007: 9
2006: 7
2005: 9
2004: 11
2003: 7
2002: 13
2001: 9
NUMBER OF RECEIVERS WITH 100+ CATCHES SINCE 2001
2009: 6
2008: 3
2007: 6
2006: 1
2005: 4
2004: 1
2003: 4
2002: 5
2001: 6
As you can see, that lean toward the pass doesn't mean we can afford to wait for our "elite receiver" on draft day. History tells us that there won't be more than 6-10 of them.
While you digest that, here's some more random facts related to pass-catching. All season I tracked the Target Report highlights over on Pancake Blocks. A target, of course, is a ball thrown to a receiver (not how many he catches). Some things stood out from the final numbers:
* Out of all receivers with 100 or more targets, Calvin Johnson ended up with the worst catch rate at 49 percent. I'm staying away from him unless the Lions land a solid No. 2 WR this offseason.
* Andre Johnson led the league in targets with 171, but Wes Welker was the leader in terms of targets per game. I'm intrigued by Julian Edelman next season because of that.
* Ray Rice (101) was the only running back with 100 or more targets. Tim Hightower (80) was second, something that is very unlikely to happen next season thanks to the emergence of Chris Wells.
* The only name in the top 10 that surprises me is Santonio Holmes (8th). His meager five touchdowns seems a little fluky and he could be a nice value pick next season.
* Out of all receivers with 100 or more targets, Wes Welker led the league in catch percentage at an absurd 76 percent. Tom Brady is going to miss him dearly.
* Davone Bess (113) had more targets than Donald Driver, Mike Sims-Walker, Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston.
V-JAX AND THE LONG ARM OF THE LAW
News came down on Tuesday that Vincent Jackson was charged with two misdemeanors stemming from his traffic stop just before the Divisional Round loss to the Jets. That in itself isn't a big deal, but when taken in context with V-Jax's 2006 conviction on a misdemeanor drunken driving charge and a 2009 DUI case pending, we have problems.
Jackson is likely staring at a one-game suspension, and there's a very real possibility he could be sat down for even more. It's another reason to like Malcom Floyd, who showed he is more than just a deep threat last season. All Floyd needs is more targets.
DEEP RECEIVERS
It's too early in the offseason to project exact depth charts, but here are four receivers below the radar that have a shot to be in the mix next season. Not listed are guys people already know about like Julian Edelman, Devin Thomas, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Devin Aromashodu, Early Doucet etc.:
Jacoby Jones - He's expected to at least push Kevin Walter for the No. 2 job. With Matt Schaub under center in that offense, it's impossible not to like the big-play potential of Jones.
Kevin Ogletree - The problems of Roy Williams are well documented. The Cowboys coaches say Ogletree isn't ready yet, but they also didn't think Miles Austin was ready at the beginning of last season. With a big offseason, Ogletree could be pushing Williams by the middle of next season.
Dwayne Jarrett - There's one big problem with this guy: He's simply not that good. That said, the Panthers are desperate at the No. 2 receiver spot as they can't put Muhsin Muhammad there again in good conscious.
Andre Caldwell - He's probably a better option for the No. 2 job than Laveranues Coles, but that's not saying much. Even if Caldwell does win this job, the upside isn't very high.
CATCHING UP ON SOME NEWS
Kurt Warner is expected to announce his retirement on Friday. Huge ramifications for all Cardinals receivers with Matt Leinart under center. … Jonathan Stewart is getting more surgery on his Achilles. I'd be scared if this guy has ever seemed limited in a game by the injury. … It's a foregone conclusion that LaDainian Tomlinson will be cut. Sad but necessary. … David Garrard is a Pro Bowler? This game is an even bigger joke this year than it was in the past. … Injuries should not be a factor in the Super Bowl. Only Jeremy Shockey (knee) and Jerraud Powers (foot) are in any real danger of missing the game. And maybe I'm crazy, but I might take David Thomas over a healthy Shockey anyway.
